思源电气 Gangtise 研报索引（2026-05-20）
- 来源: Gangtise 文件中心
- 日期: 2026-05-20
- 类型: 研报索引 / 卖方观点线索
- 涉及公司: 思源电气（002028.SZ）
- 涉及主题: 电网设备 / 海外电力设备 / 储能 / 超级电容
- 一句话摘要: 近期卖方研报集中关注思源电气 2025 年报、2026Q1、海外收入高增、订单目标和超级电容等新产品线索。
研究报告查询结果:
标题：思源电气(002028):海外收入高速增长，有望长期受益于全球电网高景气
文件时间：2026-05-11
作者：刘巍,尹仕昕
来源机构：浙商证券
摘要："""
投资要点
？2025年、2026Q1归母净利润同比分别增长53.7%、23.2%
2025年，公司实现营业收入215.4亿元，同比增加39.3%；归母净利润31.5亿元，同比增加53.7%。2026Q1，公司实现营业收入45.7亿元，同比增加41.6%；归母净利润5.5亿元，同比增加23.2%。
？超额完成年度经营目标，2026年新增订单及营业收入目标增速分别30%、25%
2025年公司经营目标为实现新增合同订单268亿元（不含税），同比增长25%；实现营业收入185亿元，同比增长20%。公司实际新增订单为288.9亿元（不含税），与上年同期相比增长34.6%；实现营业总收入215.4亿元，与上年同期相比增长39.3%。2026年公司经营目标为实现新增合同订单375亿元（不含税），同比增长30%；实现营业收入270亿元，同比增长25%。
？长期坚持海外战略，持续进行产品和市场投入
2025年，公司来自海外市场的营业收入为58.03亿元，同比增长了85.84%。公司业务已覆盖全球100多个国家和地区，海外收入占比提升至26.94%，成功切入发达市场顶级电网运营商供应链，全球化布局取得阶段性成效。公司多款产品在德国、葡萄牙、瑞典、芬兰、爱尔兰等多个国家市场实现了突破。公司多款产品通过了多个国家的资质认证。在巩固现有市场基础上，公司将逐步开拓海外配用电市场，全面提升国际化运营能力与品牌影响力。
？重视研发，超级电容等新产品有望持续贡献增长动能
公司通过持续加大研发投入，成功完善和推出了系列化的、具有技术创新优势的新产品，为未来的市场拓展奠定了坚实基础。超级电容产品在新型电力系统、数据中心等应用领域均取得了较大进展。在新型电力系统应用场景中，静止型同步调相机（SSC）和调频储能等应用逐步得到了客户的认可，逐步从试点转为批量应用；在数据中心应用场景中，超容作为抑制功率波动的主要技术方案正在进入批量应用阶段。
？盈利预测及估值
上调盈利预测，维持“买入”评级。预计公司2026-2028年营业收入分别为286.8/374.6/485.3亿元，YOY为33.1%/30.6%/29.5%；预计2026-2028年归母净利分别为44.0/58.9/78.1亿元，YOY为39.7%/33.8%/32.6%；预计2026-2028年EPS为5.62/7.52/9.98元/股，对应PE为35/26/20倍，维持“买入”评级。
？风险提示
电网投资不及预期；海外拓展不及预期；原材料价格上涨；汇率波动。
"""
file-type：研究报告
file-id：444472637210251264
标题：思源电气：全年业绩与订单高增，有望受益于全球电力设备景气度
文件时间：2026-05-05
作者：王蔚祺,王晓声
来源机构：国信证券
摘要："""
思源电气(002028)
核心观点
全年收入利润快速增长，四季度业绩创历史新高。2025年公司实现营收215.39亿元，同比+39.34%；归母净利润31.50亿元，同比+53.74%。2025年公司毛利率30.77%，同比-0.48pct.；净利率15.13%，同比+1.64pct.。四季度公司实现归母净利润9.59亿元，同比+71.92%，创单季度历史新高。
一季度业绩稳健增长，盈利能力保持稳定。一季度公司实现营收45.69亿元，同比+41.60%，环比-40.76%；归母净利润5.50亿元，同比+23.17%，环比-42.64%。一季度公司毛利率28.95%，同比-1.36pct.，环比+0.95pct.。
开关、变压器收入快速增长，储能业务收入、毛利率大幅增长。2025年公司开关类收入89.4亿元，同比+29.3%，毛利率36.9%，同比-1.9pct.；变压器类收入46.3亿元，同比+38.4%，毛利率36.4%，同比+4.1pct.;储能系统及
元件类收入15.3亿元，同比+120.5%，毛利率11.7%，同比+9.2pct.。
"""
file-type：研究报告
file-id：442631062205124608
标题：思源电气(002028)：全球化战略成效显著 海外业务快速增长
文件时间：2026-05-05
作者：张志邦,郑洋
来源机构：华安证券
摘要："""
主要观点：
业绩
公司公布2025 年度报告及2026 年第一季度报告。2025 年实现营收215.39 亿元，同比增长39.34%，实现归母净利31.50 亿元，同比增长53.74%，扣非归母净利润29.52 亿元，同比增长57.13%。2025Q4 实现营收77.12 亿元，同比增长52.69%，实现归母净利9.59 亿元，同比71.92%，扣非归母净利9.16 亿元，同比增长93.56%。2026Q1 实现营收45.49 亿元，同比增长41.60%，实现归母净利5.50 亿元，同比增长23.17%，扣非归母净利4.93 亿元，同比增长12.79%。2025 年毛利率为30.77%，同比下降0.48Pct；2025Q4 毛利率为28.00%，同比下降2.88Pct；2026Q1 毛利率为28.95%，同比下降1.36Pct。
海外业务快速增长，全球化布局成效显现
海外市场收入达58.03 亿元，同比激增85.84%，收入占比提升至26.94%。2025 年新增订单288.91 亿元，同比增长34.6%，为2026 年及未来的业绩持续高增奠定了坚实基础。公司指引2026 年新增订单375 亿元，同比增长30%，营收270 亿元，同比增长25%，增长确定性强。另外，公司新兴业务储能系统及元件类业务收入达15.31 亿元，同比增长120.52%，毛利率大幅提升9.18 个百分点至11.71%。
投资建议
我们预计26-28 年收入分别为297.00/380.16/475.20 亿元（前值233.10/279.72/-亿元）；归母净利润分别为45.84/59.73/76.88 亿元（前值34.85/38.12/-亿元），对应PE 分别33/26/20 倍，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示
市场竞争加剧；汇率波动风险；新产品推进速度不及预期。
"""
file-type：研究报告
file-id：442351982972915712
标题：Sieyuan Electric (002028.SZ): Positive Key Takeaways from Investor Group Meeting in HK with Sustainable & High Growth
文件时间：2026-05-05
作者：Bella Tian,Pierre Lau
来源机构：花旗
摘要："""
We reiterate our Buy rating on Sieyuan after hosting an investor group meeting in Hong Kong this afternoon with its CFO Mr. Zherong Yang. The key takeaways were generally positive, including (i) Sieyuan aims for continuous technology and product upgrade targeting to become the Chinese version of ‘ABB’ (ABBN SW, Neutral); (ii) its revenue mix would be >50% from overseas, from 37% in 2025; (iii) its GP margin would be sustainable (vs. 30.8% in 2025); the GP margin cut of 1.4ppts yoy to 29.0% in 1Q26 for revenue mix change should not be a concern; and (iv) it has mitigated its commodity price risk by forward contracts and battery unit cost rise risk by having it borne by its customers. After the meeting, we think its forthcoming H-share listing probably in 4Q26E in our estimate to be small scale (<10% new share issuance) as it is in net cash.
Long-term business goal – Sieyuan aims to become the China version of ‘ABB’ as its benchmark.
Siyuan admitted ABB has more sophisticated technology; it nevertheless could deliver products with shorter lead time and provisions of more value-added services. Sieyuan had Rmb28.9bn new orders and Rmb21.6bn revenue in 2025; the company guides its new orders and revenue to rise >30% and >25% yoy respectively in 2026E. It had 35% new orders and 37% revenue from overseas in 2025. It expects revenue mix from overseas to exceed 50% in 3-5 years (we think 2-3 years). Geographically, its new orders in 2025 comprised >20% from Americas (including the US), >20% from Europe and Middle East (with the latter being more open to the use of Chinese grid equipment), 20% from Africa, 15% from SE Asia and 15% from Africa.
The biggest profits from switchgears, followed by transformers – Sieyuan started disclosing segmental performance by products from 2025.
Its gross profit last year was 49.7% from switchgear sales (up to 750kV) with 36.9% GP margin, 25.4% from transformer sales (up to 750kV) with 36.4% GP margin and 13.5% from protection & automation products with 35.1% GP margin. The company guides its GP margin of switchgear sales with upside in 2026E when that of transformer sales might be diluted slightly for acquisition of a transformer production plant in late 2025. >95% transformer sales are for export with margin above domestic sales.
H-share listing to boost international recognition – Sieyuan is applying for H-share listing, so it will have annual reports in English, conducive to boost global recognition.
Siyuan assumes its new orders and revenue to rise 20-30% pa in next 2-3 years. It thinks it’s competitive for (i) comprehensive product mix comprising primary equipment for operation, secondary ones for controlling and monitoring, ESS as well as EPC services; (ii) extensive sales and distribution network with >400 salespersons; and (iii) responsive service centers with high efficiency. It now has >100 employees working aboard. Domestically, revenue upside would come from more grid spending and higher ESS demand.
Sustainable GP margin – Sieyuan guides its GP margin in 2026E to be not more than 1ppt different from that (30.8%) in 2025.
It explained that its GP margin cut 1.4ppts yoy to 29.0% in 1Q26 for higher revenue mix from low margin businesses in particular ESS. Its revenue from ESS sales was Rmb1.3bn in 2025 and might double yoy in 2026E considering that it received Rmb3bn ESS new orders last year. Its GP margin for protection and automation segment might also rise yoy in 2026E. Its commodity price rise risk has been absorbed by forward contracts. Margin uncertainty, if any, would be from forex rate change and higher oil prices rise caused by Middle East conflict.
Mitigated margin cut risk of ESS – Sieyuan’s ESS business is divided into battery and ESS (ex-battery) system; these two parts represent 55-60% and 40-45% of total production costs respectively.
The battery cost is borne by customers who could supply the battery themselves or have Sieyuan buying for them but paid by them. Via cost control, Sieyuan aims to raise the GP margin of ESS (ex-battery) system to 30% (without specifying timing), from 16-17% in 2025 which was its 1st year making ESS. The company got ESS new orders of Rmb3.5-4.0bn in 2025, which was its 2nd year receiving ESS orders. New orders are recognized after getting customer deposits (10-30% contracted sum).
"""
file-type：研究报告
file-id：442338379372826624
标题：China Electrical Equipment: Pinggao, Sieyuan and TBEA among Top 4 Winners of State Grid Equipment Procurement 2nd Batch in 2026
文件时间：2026-05-04
作者：Pierre Lau
来源机构：花旗
摘要："""
New orders should support earnings mostly in 2027E – For Pinggao, Sieyuan and NARI, we calculate that their new orders received this time around are equivalent to 7.2%, 3.4% and 1.7% of their total domestic new orders in 2025. We expect most of the new orders in this round to be delivered in 2027E, supporting the revenue and earnings of these companies next year. We assume PRC power grid capex to +15% yoy in 2026E.
2nd round of equipment tendering from State Grid in 2026 – The results for the 2nd batch of State Grid’s 2026 power transmission and transformation equipment bidding were announced for a total of Rmb21.4bn.
"""
file-type：研究报告
file-id：441919478000390144
标题：思源电气 (002028.SZ): 2026年一季度业绩基本符合预期；买入
文件时间：2026-04-27
来源机构：高盛
摘要："""
投资观点、估值方法和风险
投资观点：思源电气是一家中国电网设备企业，在国家电网多个类别的产品招标中排名前三位。凭借卓越的产品质量和出色的运营能力，我们预计思源电气2025-30年出口收入将年均复合增长43%。推动因素包括基础设施老化、经济发展和可再生能源推动下的全球电网升级周期，以及思源电气在开关设备/电力变压器领域的市场份额从2025年的6%/1%提
"""
file-type：研究报告
file-id：440081277828861952
标题：Sieyuan Electric (002028.SZ): Updating largely in line 1Q26 results; Buy
文件时间：2026-04-27
作者：Zhou Li,Hao Chen,Jacqueline Du
来源机构：高盛
摘要："""
Post market close on Apr 24, Sieyuan reported 1Q26 results, roughly in line. Most financial items were in line with our expectations, while net profit missed a bit on Rmb64mn of foreign exchange loss in 1Q26.
"""
file-type：研究报告
file-id：439209110245347328
标题：Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd.: FX Losses Slowed 1Q26 Earnings Growth; Core Operations Strong
文件时间：2026-04-26
作者：Estelle Wang,Evan Chen,Tom Li,Eva Hou
来源机构：摩根士丹利
摘要："""
Valuation Methodology and Risks
Siyuan Electric Co.Ltd. (002028.SZ)
We use discounted cash flow analysis to capture long-term cash flows for 2027-37. Key assumptions:
n WACC of 7.5%, which reflects a CoE of 9.5% (beta of 1.2, risk-free rate of 2.1%, risk premium of 4.5%, a China premium of 2.0%), an after-tax CoD of 4.5% and a target debt-to-capital ratio of 40%.
n 1% terminal growth.
"""
file-type：研究报告
file-id：439160024905420800
标题：思源电气：业绩快增，净利率受结构与汇兑干扰
文件时间：2026-04-25
作者：刘俊,边文姣,戚腾元
来源机构：华泰证券
摘要："""
思源电气(002028)
思源电气发布一季报：2026Q1实现营业收入45.69亿元（yoy+41.60%），归母净利润5.50亿元（yoy+23.17%），扣非归母净利润4.93亿元（yoy+12.79%），业绩保持快速增长。公司作为电力设备民营企业龙头具备强阿尔法属性，内生增长动力强劲。全球高压电网设备持续紧缺，AI进一步放大缺口，公司海外订单持续高增，加速突破北美数据中心领域；国内中标份额持续提升，与怀柔实验室合作布局IGCT领域，我们继续看好公司受益于海外、网内双市场高景气，维持“买入”评级。
业绩快增，净利率受收入结构与汇兑损失干扰
2026Q1分别实现毛、净利率28.95%、12.52%，yoy-1.36、-1.85pct；毛利率有所下滑系储能与EPC等低毛利率业务收入占比较高。公司26Q1期间费用率16.06%，同比+1.26pct，其中销售、管理、财务、研发费用率分别为4.99%、2.14%、1.18%、7.76%，同比-0.04、-0.63、+2.08、-0.14pct，财务费用有明显抬升系汇兑损失影响。
"""
file-type：研究报告
file-id：438930963629232128
标题：思源电气点评：营收超预期增长，利润短期波动不改长期竞争力
文件时间：2026-04-25
作者：姚遥
来源机构：国金证券
摘要："""
业绩简评 4月24日，公司披露2026年一季报，26Q1实现营收45.7亿元，同增41.6%；归母净利润5.5亿元，同增23.2%；扣非归母净利润4.9亿元，同增12.8%；毛利率29.0%，同比-1.4pct，预计主要系储能、EPC等业务占比提升影响。 经营分析 Q1归母净利润与扣非净利润增速放缓主要受汇兑与前瞻性研发&销售投入影响。我们测算26Q1汇兑损失0.6亿元以上，去年同期收益约0.2亿元，销售/研发费用同比增加6600万元/1亿元，我们预计主要为海外市场开拓、超级电容&换流阀等新产品研发投入，汇兑+销售+研发合计同比增加2.3亿元以上，剔除汇兑扰动后，经营性利润增速与营收基本匹配。 产品结构变化导致毛利率承压、我们判断26Q2起公司毛利率有望迎拐点。Q1毛利率下滑预计主要受产品结构影响（储能、EPC业务占比提升、750kv高毛利率组合开关交付延期）。随着国内750 kV GIS、海外高质量订单开始交付，整体毛利率有望在26Q2企稳回升。 全球电网景气度向上、公司新签订单持续高增。26Q1 GEV/ABB电气业务新增订单分别同比+111%/44%，3月国内变压器出口8.3亿美元，同比+36%，持续验证海外景气度。公司26Q1末公司存货50亿、合同负债32亿，分别同比+9/+3亿元，为未来更多产品交付做准备，看好经营潜力释放、加速收割全球市场份额。 盈利预测、估值与评级 公司发展战略明确、业务规划清晰，在国内电网投资加速、海外电力设备需求持续景气背景下，预计公司各类产品收入仍将持续高速增长。我们预计公司26-28年归母净利润45.1/64.1/85.3亿元，同比增长43/42/33%。公司股票现价对应PE估值为39/27/20倍，维持“买入”评级。 风险提示 投资/海外拓展/产品推广不及预期、原材料上涨、行业竞争加剧。
"""
file-type：研究报告
file-id：438674465896550400
标题：思源电气：2026年一季报点评：业绩符合市场预期，高景气成长周期进行中
文件时间：2026-04-25
作者：曾朵红,司鑫尧
来源机构：东吴证券
摘要："""
思源电气(002028)
投资要点
事件：公司发布26年一季报，26Q1营收45.7亿元，同环比+41.6%/-40.8%，归母净利润5.5亿元，同环比+23.2%/-42.6%，扣非净利润4.9亿元，同环比+12.8%/-46.2%，毛利率29.0%，同环比-1.4/+0.9pct；归母净利率12.0%，同环比-1.8/-0.4pct。公司Q1业绩基本符合市场预期。
汇兑对表观业绩略有影响，储能+EPC等低毛利项目确收比例较高为主因。根据我们测算，公司因汇兑导致的直接利润影响约0.46亿元，折算后归母净利润/扣非归母净利润估计约5.96/5.38亿元，同比+39%/28%，汇兑直接对业绩影响有限。毛利率和净利率同比下滑，我们认为主要系公司低毛利率的储能及EPC订单确认收入导致，而公司电力设备相关业务盈利能力稳定，且海外设备订单毛利率大幅高于国内，单季度收入结构影响不改公司盈利能力提升大趋势，且公司储能业务已成功实现欧洲市场突破，有望大幅改善板块利润率水平。
全球电力设备大周期逻辑确认、内资出海龙头加速成长。
"""
file-type：研究报告
file-id：438659007247962112
标题：Sieyuan Electric (002028.SZ): 1Q26 Profit Growth Probably Below Expectations, Dragged by GP Margin Cut for Product Mix Change
文件时间：2026-04-24
作者：Pierre Lau,Bella Tian
来源机构：花旗
摘要："""
Sieyuan’s net profit rose 23.2% yoy to Rmb550m in 1Q26, driven by revenue +41.6% yoy to Rmb4,569m (with the growth rate exceeding its annual revenue target to +25% yoy to Rmb26.9bn in 2026E) but net margin -1.8ppts yoy to 12.0%. The net profit growth rate of +23.2% yoy in 1Q26 was lower than consensus (Bloomberg) forecasting its net profit to +38% yoy to Rmb4,343m in 2026E. Stripping out one-off items, recurrent net profit added 12.8% yoy to Rmb493m in the period when ROE added 0.02ppts yoy to 3.48%. Its margins in 1Q26 had some fluctuations, including GP margin -1.4ppts yoy to 29.0%, OP margin +0.5ppts yoy to 15.4%, and NP margin -1.8ppts yoy to 12.0%. The company attributed the slight GP margin cut primarily owing to certain short-term product mix change in the quarter.
Inventory and work-in-progress rise preparing for more product delivery ahead — Sieyuan’s operating cash outflow reduced 13.7% yoy to Rmb483m in the quarter with inventory up 23.3% qoq to Rmb5,030m preparing for more delivery ahead with reference to orders on hand. Work-in-progress also increased 37.2% to Rmb576m in the same period for a similar reason. Investing cash outflow jumped 102.7%yoy to Rmb1,201m in 1Q26 with more payments for investing activities. Its negative free cashflow therefore expanded 46.2% yoy to Rmb1,683m in the quarter. Sieyuan nevertheless was financially sound with net cash in 1Q26.
Rapid new order growth
Siyuan had new orders of Rmb28.89bn in 2025, up 34.6% yoy; in other words, new orders last year exceeded its target +25% yoy to Rmb26.83bn. New orders in 2025 had higher component of overseas than domestic market. Sieyuan has more than 20 overseas subsidiaries serving local customers. Its 2025 overseas new orders were geographically diversified coming from more than 100 countries, while US exposure was mild, accounting for less than 5% of overseas orders. And those overseas orders last year, coming from more than 100 countries hence geographically diversified, were mostly from grids and clean energy companies. Its new orders had increased mix yoy from overseas in 2025. The company aims for its new orders to add at least 30% yoy to Rmb37.56bn in 2026E with increments from new product launch and increase in market penetration. Sieyuan has no plans to build production capacity overseas.
Gross profit mostly from switchgears and transformers
2025 was the first time that Sieyuan disclosed its gross profit breakdown by products. Its 2025 gross profits were: (i) 49.7% (-4.3ppts yoy) from switchgears with GP margin -0.9ppts yoy to 36.9%, (ii) 25.4% (+3.1ppts yoy) from transformers with GP margin +4.1ppts yoy to 36.4%, (iii) 13.5% (-3.1ppts yoy) from protection and automation with GP margin +2.5ppts yoy to 35.1%, (iv) 4.3% (+0.4ppts yoy) from power electronics with GP margin +0.1ppts yoy to 18.9%, (v) 4.2% (+1.7ppts yoy) from EPC works with GP margin -0.1ppts yoy to 11.8%, (vi) 2.7% (+2.3ppts yoy) from energy storage systems and components with GP margin +9.2ppts yoy to 11.7%; as well as (vii) 0.2% (-0.1ppts yoy) from leasing with GP margin -12.3ppts yoy to 28.9%.
Implications
We reiterate our Buy rating assuming its margin cut in 1Q26 to be temporary owing to product mix change, according to the company. It has set ambitious targets for 2026E, including revenue to add >25% yoy and new orders to rise >30% yoy to Rmb26.8bn. The stock seems popular with overseas investors with 158m shares, or 20.2% stake, held by them. The company is on a roadshow for its forthcoming H-share listing, meeting investors in Singapore this week and in Hong Kong after Labor Week holiday.
"""
file-type：研究报告
file-id：438359790482755584
标题：Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd.: Risk Reward Update
文件时间：2026-04-23
作者：Eva Hou
来源机构：摩根士丹利
摘要："""
Risk Reward for Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd. (002028.SZ)
Risk Reward for Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd. (002028.SZ) has been updated.
"""
file-type：研究报告
file-id：438105395446812672
标题：First Read Sieyuan Electric Q126 core business in line with buyside offset by FX swing
文件时间：2026-04-24
作者：Eason Tang,Ken Liu
来源机构：瑞银
摘要："""
Solid Q126 with revenue ahead of FY26 company guidance, but reported NP lagged, dragged by GPM compression and a FX-driven financial expense swing. Ex-FX, we estimate core profit growth at 42% YoY, largely in line with buyside expectation.
KEY NUMBERS
Q126 reported revenue/NP Rmb4.6bn/Rmb550m, +42%/+23% YoY; revenue ahead of FY26 company guidance of +25% YoY. Excluding Rmb83m FX-driven financial expense swing, we estimate core profit growth at 42% YoY, broadly in-line with buyside expectation. GPM 29.0% vs 30.3% in Q125 (-1.4ppt), partially offset by SG&A ratio down 0.8ppt YoY to 14.9%.
RESULTS HIGHLIGHTS
a) Revenue +42% YoY to Rmb4.6bn from Rmb3.2bn, ahead of FY26 company guidance of +25% YoY.
b) GPM -1.4ppt YoY to 29.0%, likely due to rising raw material costs, pending confirmation from management.
c) Financial expense Rmb83m YoY swing (Rmb54m cost vs Rmb29m income in Q125), likely FX-driven in our view;
d) SG&A ratio down 0.8ppt YoY to 14.9%;
e) contract liabilities+11% YoY and inventory +24% YoY point to healthy pipeline.
UBS COMMENT
We would expect a neutral to slight positive investor reaction. Ex-FX core profit growth 42% YoY is in-line with buyside FY26 expectation, and top-line growth is ahead of FY26 company guidance, while GPM -1.4ppt YoY to 29.0% could raise concerns on margin trajectory. We remain positive on Sieyuan as a key beneficiary of the global power equipment shortage upcycle and China domestic grid capex strong cycle,
Company Description
Sieyuan Electric’s core business is primary power equipment manufacturing. Its key products are HV switchgear and power transformers. The company has expanded its business in secondary equipment and energy storage systems, and is exploring export opportunities. Sieyuan was founded in Shanghai in 1993 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2004.
Valuation Method and Risk Statement
Our price target for Sieyuan is based on a DCF methodology.
Key downside risks are: 1) weaker-than-expected demand for high-voltage primary equipment globally; 2) rising competition in overseas markets that could weigh on market share; 3) lower-than-expected ASP; 4) higher-than-expected raw material price hikes; 5) longer-than-expected product delivery cycle in overseas markets.
"""
file-type：研究报告
file-id：439601909285392384
标题：思源电气（002028.SZ）2025年年报点评：变压器及开关业务稳增，深化国内外市场布局
文件时间：2026-04-22
作者：邓永康,李佳,许浚哲
来源机构：国联民生证券
摘要："""
事件：2026年4月17日，公司发布2025年年报。2025年公司实现营业收入215.39亿元，同比增长39.34%；归母净利润31.50 亿元，同比增长53.74%；扣非归母净利润29.52亿元，同比增长57.13%。单25Q4，公司实现营业收入77.12亿元，同比增长52.69%；归母净利润9.59亿元，同比增长71.92%；扣非归母净利润9.16亿元，同比增长93.56%。
2025年公司变压器、开关类业务均实现较好增长。具体产品来看，2025年公司变压器实现收入46.33亿元，同比增长38.4%，毛利率为36.4%，同比提升4.1Pcts；开关实现收入89.35亿元，同比增长29.3%，毛利率为36.9%，同比下降1.9Pcts；保护及自动化类实现收入25.4亿元，同比增长4.0%，毛利率为35.1%，同比提升2.5Pcts；电力电子类实现收入15.25亿元，同比增长49.5%，毛利率为18.9%，同比提升0.1Pct；EPC类实现收入23.32亿元，同比增长130.9%，毛利率为11.8%，同比下滑0.1Pct；储能实现收入15.31亿元，同比增长121%，毛利率为11.7%，同比提升9.2Pcts。
2025年公司超额实现年初订单及收入目标，2026年订单目标同增30%。2025年度公司的经营目标是：实现新增合同订单268亿元（不含税）、同比增长25%，实现营业收入185亿元、同比增长20%；2025年公司实际完成情况为：2025年公司新增订单为288.91亿元（不含税），与上年同期相比增长34.64%；实现营业总收入215.39亿元，与上年同期相比增长39.34%；新签订单及实现营收均超额完成年初目标。2026年度公司的经营目标是：实现新增合同订单375亿元（不含税），同比增长30%；实现营业收入270亿元，同比增长25%；2026年公司订单及营收均维持较积极展望。
海外业务持续高增，成为公司业务重要增量。2025年公司海外实现收入58.03亿元、同比增长86%，毛利率为35.24%。业务已覆盖全球100多个国家和地区，2025年公司海外收入占比提升至26.94%，成功切入发达市场顶级电网运营商供应链，全球化布局取得阶段性成效。
投资建议：公司为国内电力设备优质企业，积极布局多个核心赛道，我们预计公司2026-2028年营收分别为292.70、376.09、459.76亿元，对应增速分别为35.9%、28.5%、22.2%；归母净利润分别为43.08、59.09、73.78亿元，对应增速分别为36.7%、37.2%、24.9%，以4月21日收盘价为基准，对应2026-2028年PE为39X、29X、23X，维持“推荐”评级。
风险提示：原材料价格波动超预期风险，海外市场拓展不及预期风险等。
"""
file-type：研究报告
file-id：437571234768375808
标题：Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd.: >50% 2025 earnings growth from stronger revenue growth and operation leverage
文件时间：2026-04-19
作者：Ms. Eva Hou,Evan Chen,Estelle Wang,Tom Li
来源机构：摩根士丹利
摘要："""
Sieyuan reported FY25 net profit of Rmb3,150mn, up 53.7% yoy, -0.4% vs. its preliminary results; and revenue of Rmb21.5bn, up 39.3%, +1.6% vs prem results. GP margin fell 0.5ppt yoy to 30.8%, due to unfavorable product mix, as revenue mix of EPC and energy storage up to 17.9% in 2025 vs. 11.0% in 2024. Operating expenses ratio fell 1.6ppt to 13.5%. Sieyuan announced its FY26 target of Rmb37.5bn new order intake (excl. VAT), +30% yoy; and Rmb27.0bn of revenue, +25% yoy.
By region:
• Domestic revenue was Rmb15.7bn, +28% yoy, while GP margin -0.6ppt to 29.1%;
• Overseas revenue was Rmb5.8bn, +86% yoy and account for 26.9% of the total revenue mix (+6.7ppts yoy); while GPM -1.8ppts to 35.2%.
By product, we highlight:
• Energy storage revenue +121% yoy to Rmb1.5bn, and GPM notably improve by 9.2ppts yoy to 11.7%
• Switchgear revenue of Rmb8.9bn, +29% yoy, and GPM 36.9%, -1.9ppts yoy;
• Transformer revenue of Rmb4.6bn, +38% yoy; GPM 36.4%, +4.1ppts yoy;
• Power electronics revenue of Rmb1.5bn, +50% yoy; GPM 18.9%, +0.13ppt yoy.
On a quarterly basis
Sieyuan’s net profit in 4Q25 was Rmb959mn,+71.9% yoy and +6.7% QoQ; and revenue was Rmb7.7bn, +52.7% yoy and +44.7% QoQ. GPM was 28.0%, -2.9ppts yoy and -5.2ppts QoQ. Opex ratio was 12.5%, -4.3ppts yoy and -1.7ppts QoQ.
Key Takeaways
Sieyuan announced higher revenue and new order intake growth of +25% and +30%, respectively, in 2026, vs. 20% and 25% in 2025.
We expect Sieyuan to continue to beat its guidance on both revenue and new order growth in 2026.
Sieyuan achieved 35% new order growth in 2025 to Rmb28.9bn, beating guidance again.
Sieyuan’s 54% net profit growth in 2025 was attributed to 39% revenue growth, 1.6ppt operational cost decline, while GPM of 31% was below expectations.
FY25 GPM was -0.5ppts yoy vs. MSe 32.3%, due to product mix with 7% yoy rising energy storage and overseas EPC revenue mix to 18% with only <12% GPM.
"""
file-type：研究报告
file-id：439642505240383488
标题：思源电气：2025业绩快速增长，积极拓展新产品、海外市场
文件时间：2026-04-20
作者：徐强,房青
来源机构：国泰海通
摘要："""
盈利预测与投资评级：预计2026-2028年，公司收入295.30亿元、398.03亿元、529.13亿元，同比增37.1%、34.8%、32.9%；归母净利润42.42亿元、57.83亿元、77.51亿元，同比增34.6%、36.3%、34.0%，2026年归母净利润预测相比上篇报告调增10.9%，2027年归母净利润预测相比上篇报告调增18.4%；每股收益5.42元、7.39元、9.91元。基于公司成长性，市场开拓进展，同业估值，给予2026年48X PE，目标价260.16元，“增持”评级。目标价相比上篇报告调增77.0%。 2025业绩快速增长，国内外齐拓展。2025年，公司收入215.39亿元，同比增39.34%；其中海外收入58.03亿元，同比增85.84%；公司归母净利润31.50亿元，同比增53.74%；毛利率30.77%，同比降0.47%。 分地区来看：公司国内外齐拓展，拉动业绩快速增长。（1）国内：公司巩固提升主流产品在电网的份额，积极拓展发电、轨道交通、石化、冶金等行业市场。（2）国外：公司持续进行产品和市场投入。 分产品来看：公司主要产品基本都有快速增长。2025年，公司开关收入同比增29.30%；变压器收入同比增38.38%；电力电子收入同比增49.49%；储能系统及元件收入同比增120.52%。 公司费用控制有成效。2025年，公司期间费率13.47%，同比降1.54pct。各项期间费率均有下降，销售费率4.77%，同比降0.20 pct；管理费率2.70%，同比降0.21 pct；研发费率6.04%，同比降1.14 pct。 积极拓展新产品、海外市场。产品拓展：公司紧跟新型电力系统发展，积极拓展构网型产品：SSC、构网型SVG和构网型储能系统；推出新型“环保”系列中压开关、高压开关产品；继续拓展以超级电容（含混合超容）、锂电池等高倍率储能元件为核心的汽车电子电器类业务，开拓以超级电容为核心的数据中心市场相关业务；持续突破柔直相关业务。海外市场：2025年，公司在海外市场圆满完成订单任务，同比取得增长。公司多款产品在德国、葡萄牙、瑞典、芬兰、爱尔兰等多个国家市场实现了突破。公司多款产品通过了多个国家的资质认证。 风险提示。国内电网投资不达预期，海外拓展进度不达预期，市场竞争导致毛利率下降，新产品拓展不达预期。
"""
file-type：研究报告
file-id：436913472799526912
标题：First Read Sieyuan Electric FY25 result in-line; FY26 guidance could imply more moderate growth
文件时间：2026-04-17
作者：Ken Liu,Eason Tang
来源机构：瑞银
摘要："""
FY25 net profit grew 54% YoY, in-line with January profit alert. FY26 guidance of Rmb27bn revenue (+25%) / Rmb37.5bn new orders (+30%) could imply more moderate growth into FY26.
KEY NUMBERS
FY25 revenue/net profit at Rmb21.5bn/Rmb3.2bn (+39%/+54% YoY) is in-line with the profit alert. Blended GPM 30.8% vs 31.3% in FY24 (-0.5ppt). DPS at Rmb0.70, implying 17% payout ratio.
RESULTS HIGHLIGHTS
By segment: a) Switchgear revenue Rmb8.9bn (+29% YoY), GPM 36.9% (-1.9ppt YoY); b) Windings revenue Rmb4.6bn (+38% YoY), GPM 36.4% (+4.1ppt YoY), mainly driven by overseas shortage-premium; c) Secondary equipment revenue Rmb2.5bn (+4% YoY), GPM 35.1% (+2.5ppt YoY); d) Energy storage revenue Rmb1.5bn (+121% YoY), GPM 11.7% (+9.2ppt YoY); e) EPC revenue Rmb2.3bn (+131% YoY). Overseas: revenue Rmb5.8bn (+86% YoY), mix lifted to 27% from 20%, GPM 35.2% (-1.8ppt YoY). New order intake: Rmb28.9bn (+35% YoY), beating company target Rmb26.8bn (+25%). Contract liabilities: Rmb3.0bn (+26% YoY). Inventory: Rmb4.1bn (+17% YoY).
GUIDANCE
FY26 revenue expected to increase to Rmb27.0bn from Rmb21.5bn (+25% YoY). FY26 new orders expected to increase to Rmb37.5bn from Rmb28.9bn (+30% YoY).
UBS COMMENT
We believe investor reaction is likely to be neutral. FY26 revenue/order guidance of +25%/+30% is in line with the January profit alert but could be below what we believe are buyside profit growth expectations of ~40% for FY26.
Company Description
Sieyuan Electric’s core business is primary power equipment manufacturing. Its key products are HV switchgear and power transformers. The company has expanded its business in secondary equipment and energy storage systems, and is exploring export opportunities. Sieyuan was founded in Shanghai in 1993 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2004.
Valuation Method and Risk Statement
Our price target for Sieyuan is based on a DCF methodology.
Key downside risks are: 1) weaker-than-expected demand for high-voltage primary equipment globally; 2) rising competition in overseas markets that could weigh on market share; 3) lower-than-expected ASP; 4) higher-than-expected raw material price hikes; 5) longer-than-expected product delivery cycle in overseas markets.
"""
file-type：研究报告
file-id：436742578273652736
标题：Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd.: >50% 2025 earnings growth from stronger revenue growth and operation leverage
文件时间：2026-04-19
作者：Estelle Wang,Eva Hou,Evan Chen,Tom Li
来源机构：摩根士丹利
摘要："""
Valuation Methodology and Risks
Siyuan Electric Co.Ltd. (002028.SZ)
We use discounted cash flow analysis to capture long-term cash flows for 2026-36. Key assumptions:
n WACC of 7.5%, which reflects a CoE of 9.5% (beta of 1.2, risk-free rate of 2.1%, risk premium of 4.5%, a China premium of 2.0%), an after-tax CoD of 4.5% and a target debt-to-capital ratio of 40%.
n 0% terminal growth.
"""
file-type：研究报告
file-id：436716877457788928
标题：Sieyuan Electric (002028.SZ): Accelerated Growth Targets for 2026E; Top Pick in Power Grid Sector
文件时间：2026-04-19
作者：Pierre Lau,Bella Tian
来源机构：花旗
摘要："""
We reiterate our Buy rating on Sieyuan on its strong growth. The company has set ambitious targets for 2026E, including new orders to rise at least 30% yoy to Rmb37.5bn and revenue to add more than 25% yoy to Rmb27.0bn; both of these growth rates are 5ppts above the targets for 2025 set 12 months ago. We raise our net profit forecasts +2.8% / +7.9% for 2026E/27E mainly on more revenues; DCF-based TP is +3.8% to Rmb270. Sieyuan is our top pick in both PRC and global power grid equipment sector on (i) high (39%) 2025-28E net profit CAGR; (ii) market-share gains in both China and overseas with revenue +27.6% and +85.9% yoy respectively in 2025; and (iii) undemanding 25.6x 2027E PER, 6.8x PB, and 0.7% yield.
High profit growth in 2025
Siyuan’s net profit was +53.7% yoy to Rmb3,150m in 2025, including Rmb959m (+71.8% yoy) in 4Q25. GP margin was largely sustainable -0.5ppts yoy to 30.8% last year, comprising -2.9ppts yoy to 28.0% in 4Q25, with increased revenue mix (+4.3ppts yoy to 10.8%) from EPC works at 11.8% GP margin. R&D expenses added 17.2% yoy to Rmb1,300m in 2025, equal to 6.0% (-1.1ppts yoy) revenue last year on more economies of scale. ROE was +4.6ppts yoy to 22.6%. 2025 DPS was Rmb0.70 (+40% yoy) at payout ratio of 17.5% (-1.5ppts yoy).
2025 revenue beat target
Siyuan’s revenue grew 39.3% yoy to Rmb21,539m in 2025, well above its target of +20% to Rmb18,550m. Its 2025 revenue comprised Rmb15,736m from China (+27.6% yoy) and Rmb5,803m from overseas (+85.9% yoy). Overseas revenue mix was +6.7ppts yoy to 26.9%. Its trade tariff risk is low with overseas orders from >100 nations and below 5% orders from the US.
2025 new orders also exceeded target
New orders reached Rmb28.891bn in 2025, +34.6% yoy and exceeding its target of +25% yoy to Rmb26.822bn. New orders in 2025 had higher component of overseas than domestic market. Sieyuan has more than 20 overseas subsidiaries serving local customers. Its 2025 overseas new orders were geographically diversified coming from over 100 countries, while US exposure was mild, accounting for less than 5% of overseas orders.
Gross profits mostly from switchgears and transformers
2025 was the first time that Sieyuan disclosed its gross profit breakdown by products. Its 2025 gross profits were 49.7% (-4.3ppts yoy) from switchgears, 25.4% (+3.1ppts yoy) from transformers, and 13.5% (-3.1ppts yoy) from protection and automation.
China Power Grid Equipment Sector
"""
file-type：研究报告
file-id：436716910609567744
标题：Sieyuan Electric (002028.SZ): 2025 results in line: 2026 order intake guiding 30% yoy growth; Buy
文件时间：2026-04-20
作者：Jacqueline Du,Hao Chen,Zhou Li
来源机构：高盛
摘要："""
Post market close on Apr 17, Sieyuan reported 2025 results, in line with its pre-announcement. 4Q25 reported revenue/gross profit/EBIT/net profit of Rmb7,712mn/2,180mn/1,150mn/959mn, +53%/+38%/+71%/+72% yoy, +5%/-6%/+18%/-1% vs. GSe, roughly in line. 4Q25 GPM/OPM/NPM recorded 28%/15%/12%, -3pp/+2pp/+1pp yoy, -3pp/+2pp/-1pp vs. GSe. GPM in 4Q25 was slightly below our estimates, due to higher contribution from EPC, ESS, and power electronics business that have lower GPM. But OPM stayed resilient as SG&A cost as % of revenue reduced by 1.6pp yoy mainly on operating leverage.
Revenue breakdown by region: Export business recorded 27% of firmwide revenue in 2025, with 1H25 at 34%, but 2H25 dropping to 23%, due to delayed revenue recognition. Latin America recognized revenue of c.Rmb1.4bn (nearly 25% of export business); Europe and Middle East recorded revenue of c.Rmb1.3bn (20%+ of export business); Southeast Asia recorded roughly Rmb900mn revenue (c.16% of export); Central Asia recorded roughly Rmb900mn in revenue as well (c.16% of export); Africa recorded roughly Rmb1.2bn in revenue (20%+ of export, almost tripling vs 2024); US and Australia had limited sales in 2025.
Revenue breakdown by product:
Switchgear recorded revenue of Rmb8,935mn, +29% yoy in line with the strong share gain trend in GIS (gas insulated switchgear), circuit breaker, disconnector in State Grid tendering; GPM was at 37%, -2pp yoy;
Transformer products recorded revenue of Rmb4,633mn, +38% yoy, at GPM of 37%, +4pp yoy, where roughly 80% of transformer sales are driven by export business per mgmt estimates;
Power electronics recorded revenue of Rmb1,525mn, +49% yoy, at GPM of 19%, flat yoy, in line with the strong share gain trend in arc suppression extinction coil and SVC/STATCOM in State Grid tendering;
Relay protection recorded revenue of Rmb2,542mn, +4% yoy, at GPM of 35%, +2pp yoy;
EPC recorded revenue of Rmb2,542mn, +131% yoy, at GPM of 12%, flat yoy;
ESS recorded of Rmb1,531mn, +121% yoy, at GPM of 12%, +9pp yoy.
GPM breakdown: Export business GPM was 35% in 2025, -2pp yoy; ESS business GPM was 12% in 2025, up from 3% in 2024. Assuming grid revenue GPM of 35%-36%, the off-grid GPM recovered to c.30% in 2025 from 24% in 2024.
2026 guidance
The company is guiding order intake of Rmb37.5bn, +30% yoy, where we think the company could beat guidance considering strong global grid upgrade demand and the company’s strong execution in gaining shares overseas (for reference, 2025 actual order intake beat guidance by 8%), and is guiding revenue recognition of Rmb27bn, +25% yoy (vs. GSe of Rmb28.9bn, +34% yoy).
1Q26 expectations
We are now expecting 35%/42% revenue/net profit growth in 1Q26, supported by strong order intake of 35% yoy in 2025 (around 50% yoy growth in 1H25 including ESS or 35% yoy growth excluding ESS, which takes roughly a year to convert to revenue recognition). Middle East region took up 5-8% of firmwide revenue in 2025, and company mgmt noted seeing disruptions to their business ytd, however, we think the company has enough backlog from 2025 to help mitigate impact to 1Q26 revenue recognition. Judging from what other companies have reported needing to ship to the Middle East (Jereh: 002353.SZ, Not Covered), some shipping routes are being diverted around the Gulf of Oman and the Red Sea, extending transit times by around one to two months. Customs clearance has also become slower, and freight costs have risen slightly, but the overall impact remains manageable per Sieyuan.
Going into 2026, the key thing to watch remains order intake, particularly how much the company can outperform its stated target of 30% yoy growth at the start of the year. We expect low-teens order intake growth in the domestic market, with grid-side growth mainly driven by market share gains in SVC/STATCOM and protective relays. Switchgear has already established a dominant market position, with further upside potential from UHV.
In overseas markets, transformers remain the main product category benefiting from global supply shortages. With the supply-demand imbalance likely to remain most acute over the next one to two years, and capacity not being a major constraint for Sieyuan, we expect transformers to be the company’s primary growth driver. The evolution of global players’ supply and demand also remains a key factor to watch, as it will determine the durability of the shortage cycle, where we will continue to track in our transformer tracker (see link).
"""
file-type：研究报告
file-id：436697466009161728
标题：思源电气:2025年年报点评：国际业务突飞猛进，高速成长正当时
文件时间：2026-04-19
作者：曾朵红,司鑫尧
来源机构：东吴证券
摘要："""
思源电气(002028)
投资要点
事件：公司发布25年年报，25年营收215.4亿元，同比+39.3%，归母净利润31.5亿元，同比+53.7%，扣非净利润29.5亿元，同比+57.1%，毛利率30.8%，同比-0.5pct，归母净利率14.6%，同比+1.4pct。其中25Q4营收77.1亿元，同环比+52.7%/+44.7%，归母净利润9.6亿元，同环比+71.9%/+6.7%，扣非净利润9.2亿元，同环比+93.6%/+14.5%，毛利率28.0%，同环比-2.9/-5.2pct；归母净利率12.4%，同环比+1.4/-4.4pct。25年新签订单288.91亿元，同比+35%，26年目标新签订单375亿元，同比+30%，目标收入270亿，同比+25%，我们预计公司将持续超目标完成全年任务。
国际业务进入兑现周期，AIDC下游放量赋能成长。25年公司海外营收58亿元，同比+86%，毛利率35.24%，同比-1.82pct。
"""
file-type：研究报告
file-id：436682037412909056
标题：新增订单超预期增长，看好出海持续加速——思源电气（002028.SZ）2025年年报点评
文件时间：2026-04-19
作者：邓怡亮,殷中枢
来源机构：光大证券
摘要："""
事件：公司发布2025年年报，2025年实现营收215.39亿元，同比增长39.34%；归母净利润31.50亿元，同比增长53.74%；扣非归母净利润29.52亿元，同比增长57.13%；毛利率同比下降0.48pct至30.77%，净利率同比上升1.64pct至15.13%。2025Q4公司实现营业收入77.12亿元，同比增长52.69%，实现归母净利润9.59亿元，同比增长71.92%，环比增长6.69%。
开关和变压器业务快速增长，电力电子和储能业务显著放量。25年公司开关类/变压器类/电力电子类/储能系统及元件类业务营收为89.35/46.33/15.25/15.31亿元，同比+29.30%/+38.38%/+49.49%/+120.52%，毛利率为36.88%/36.39%/ 18.88%/11.71%，同比-1.94/+4.10/+0.13/+9.18pct。
持续突破海外市场，海外营收实现高增。25年公司在海外市场圆满完成订单任务，同比取得增长；且多款产品在德国、葡萄牙、瑞典、芬兰、爱尔兰等多个国家市场实现了突破。25年公司海外营收同比+85.84%至58.03亿元，毛利率同比-1.82pct至35.24%，看好公司未来在海外市场持续取得亮眼表现。
重点发力高端电力装备产品，积极布局新兴赛道。公司在特高压领域持续发力，25年中标南网±800kV柔直换流变阀侧套管，将应用于藏粤工程，并计划研发1100kV GIS产品。公司同时前瞻布局新兴赛道，25年超容产品取得了较大进展，静止型同步调相机和调频储能等应用逐步转为批量应用，未来将持续突破场站级储能、构网型解决方案业务，并大力推动中压成套、低压直流元件及锂电/超容产品的系列化、平台化发展，培育新的利润增长点。
25年订单目标超额完成，26年经营目标展现成长信心。25年公司新增订单288.91亿元（不含税），同比增长34.64%，高于此前268亿元的目标。26年公司的经营目标为：实现新增合同订单375亿元（不含税），同比增长30%，营收270亿元，同比增长25%，充分体现公司成长信心。
维持“买入”评级。公司产品出海保持强劲，25年新增订单实现超预期增长，基于此我们上调26/27年并引入28年盈利预测，预计公司26-28年归母净利润分别为45.90/61.84/80.85亿元（上调37%/上调53%/新增），对应EPS分别为5.87/7.90/10.33元，当前股价对应26-28年PE分别为36/27/21倍。公司持续突破海外市场，同时发力高端电力装备并积极布局新兴赛道，进一步打开成长空间，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示：电网投资不及预期风险、海外经营风险、原材料价格波动风险。
"""
file-type：研究报告
file-id：436505734265196544
标题：思源电气:年报点评：26年订单目标增速提升至30%
文件时间：2026-04-18
作者：刘俊,边文姣,戚腾元
来源机构：华泰证券
摘要："""
思源电气(002028)
思源电气2025年实现营业收入215.39亿元（yoy+39.34%），归母净利31.50亿元（yoy+53.74%），业绩保持高速增长。2025年新增订单为288.91亿元（不含税，yoy+34.64%），超25年初目标268亿元（yoy+25%）；公司26年目标实现新增合同订单375亿元（不含税，yoy+30%），目标同比提速5pct，彰显强劲信心。公司作为电力设备民营企业龙头具备强阿尔法属性，内生增长动力强劲。全球高压电网设备持续紧缺，AI进一步放大缺口，公司海外订单持续高增，加速突破北美数据中心领域；国内中标份额持续提升，与怀柔实验室合作布局IGCT领域，我们继续看好公司受益于海外、网内双市场高景气，维持“买入”评级。
业绩持续高增，费率管理优异
公司2025年实现归母净利31.50亿元（yoy+53.74%），扣非归母净利29.52亿元（yoy+57.13%）。我们认为公司业绩高速增长主要受益于海外市场高质量订单高增，带动盈利能力显著提升；叠加国内网内输变电市场投资强劲，公司中标份额持续提升。
"""
file-type：研究报告
file-id：436399858137059328
标题：思源电气：业务全面开花，增长势头强劲
文件时间：2026-04-18
作者：姚遥
来源机构：国金证券
摘要："""
业绩简评 4月17日，公司披露2025年年报，2025年实现营收215.4亿元，同增39.3%，归母净利润31.5亿元，同增53.7%，毛利率30.8%，同比-0.5pct；其中Q4营收77.1亿元，同增52.7%，归母净利润9.6亿元，同增71.9%，毛利率28.0%，同比-2.9pct，主要系低毛利储能&EPC业务Q4集中交付影响。 经营分析 出海步入收获期、国内持续高端化突破。25年海外营收58亿元，同比+86%，多款产品在德国、葡萄牙、瑞典、芬兰、爱尔兰等多个国家市场实现了突破，在手订单充足，后续仍将高速增长；国网750kV GIS份额快速突破，中标南网±800kV柔直换流变阀侧套管，220kV继电保护首次在南网集采中标。 变压器&开关表现亮眼、储能业务进入放量前夜。25年公司变压器/开关营收同增38%/29%，毛利率36.4%/36.9%，同比+4.1/-1.9pct；保护及自动化类营收25.4亿元，同比+4.0%，毛利率35.1%，同比+2.5pct；电力电子类营收15.3亿元，同比+49.5%，毛利率18.9%，同比+0.1pct；EPC类营收23.3亿元，同比+130.9%，毛利率11.8%，同比-0.1pct；储能营收15亿元,同比+121%，毛利率11.7%，同比+9.2pct，与宁德时代签署3年50GWh储能合作备忘录，预计海外储能业务加速突破。 新业务多点开花，超级电容受益于AIDC需求爆发。1100kV GIS、环保型145/252kV GIS预计27年上市，后续有望突破特高压、欧洲高端市场；超级电容在新型电力系统、数据中心均取得显著进展；静止型同步调相机和调频储能逐步从试点转为批量应用。 25年经营目标超额完成、人员持续扩张、26年展望积极。公司25年营收/订单目标均超额完成，截至25年底公司总人数达11007人，同比+16%；指引26年新增订单375亿元（同比+30%），营业收入270亿元（同比+25%），看好26年营收&订单持续超预期！ 盈利预测、估值与评级 公司发展战略明确、业务规划清晰，在国内电网投资加速、海外电力设备需求持续景气背景下，预计公司各类产品收入仍将持续高速增长。我们预计公司26-28年归母净利润46.2/64.5/86.1亿元，同比增长47/40/33%。公司股票现价对应PE估值为36/26/19倍，维持“买入”评级。 风险提示 投资/海外拓展/产品推广不及预期、原材料上涨、行业竞争加剧。
"""
file-type：研究报告
file-id：436188554688483328
标题：10张图“看懂”思源电气：开启全球电力设备的“高质量收割模式”
文件时间：2026-04-07
作者：姚遥
来源机构：国金证券
摘要："""
思源电气(002028)
投资逻辑
公司的国际“电气化王者”的雏形已现！
站在全球能源变革与电力基建重构的历史交汇点，公司顺应了电网出海的时代大势，凭借卓越的内生治理能力与产品迭代速度，展现出超越行业的增长韧性。我们预计，公司25-28年营收CAGR将达33%，综合毛利率有望提升4pct，实现规模与盈利的双击。
公司将在全球范围内加速收割市场份额。
1）国内方面：结构性优化，锚定“精锐市场”。
公司摒弃同质化价格战，10类高压设备在国网招标中的份额由2023年的9.1%逆势增至2025年的11.8%。预计24-28年国内市场份额将提升50%（3.5%→5.0%），高端化策略凸显强α属性。
2）海外方面：凭借极速交付与可靠性“双杀”。
凭借产能扩张的敏捷性精准切入全球供需缺口，高研发投入兑现极致可靠性。预计24-28年海外份额将提升200%（0.6%→1.9%）。
把握25、26年公司多元下游加速扩张机遇！
"""
file-type：研究报告
file-id：432447408434728960
标题：Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd.: Risk Reward Update
文件时间：2026-03-18
作者：Ms. Eva Hou
来源机构：摩根士丹利
摘要："""
Risk Reward for Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd. (002028.SZ) has been updated
"""
file-type：研究报告
file-id：429004256956387328
标题：Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd.: Risk Reward Update
文件时间：2026-03-18
作者：Eva Hou
来源机构：摩根士丹利
摘要："""
Risk Reward for Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd. (002028.SZ) has been updated
"""
file-type：研究报告
file-id：424844414830645248
标题：思源电气：乘出海浪潮启发展新阶段，优质经营赋能加速腾飞
文件时间：2026-03-08
作者：曾朵红,司鑫尧,许钧赫
来源机构：东吴证券
摘要："""
思源电气(002028)
投资要点
电力设备民企龙头迈向全球，出海业务扬帆启航。思源电气于1993年在上海交大创办，2003年在深交所上市，凭借敏锐的战略眼光，公司在从单一产品拓展至开关、线圈、无功补偿、变压器等全产业链布局的同时大力布局海外业务。得益于在产品系列完善和海外布局上的持续投入，公司近年来业绩持续高增，2025年公司业绩大超预期，根据业绩快报，实现营收/归母净利润212/32亿元，同比增长37%/54%，19-25年营收/归母净利润CAGR分别为22%/34%。我们认为得益于公司内部极强的管理α与供应链整合能力，叠加全球电网投资Supercycle的行业β，公司正处于向全球一流电力设备商跨越的关键节点，业绩有望持续加速向上。
全球电网进入supercycle上行周期，公司出海业务进入10-100的加速收获期。
"""
file-type：研究报告
file-id：421461691969720320
标题：Sieyuan Electric (002028 CH) Buy: Direct US AIDC exposure lifted market sentiment
文件时间：2026-03-03
作者：Mr. Dun Wang,Mr. Corey K. Chan
来源机构：汇丰控股
摘要："""
◆ Sieyuan’s share outperformed YTD on positive market sentiment about AI and the State Grid’s new capex plan
◆ We see a different picture and a better outlook on product portfolio expansion in Sieyuan’s HK IPO listing document
◆ Maintain Buy; raise target price to RMB246.8 from RMB176.8
Stock sentiment is more optimistic than our expectations: On 15 January 2026, the State Grid budgeted for a 40% increase in its FAI in the 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP). Meanwhile, the positive sentiment on the AI theme further improved and the market paid attention to Sieyuan’s progress in the US market where it gained sizable orders from AIDC clients. Sieyuan’s shares have rallied 39% YTD (CSI 300 up 1.7% YTD), which we believe reflects the above catalysts. We underestimated the magnitude of the market’s enthusiasm for Sieyuan’s direct exposure to the US AIDC market and for China’s grid capex plan increase.
We see upside but in a way that is different from the general market: After the share price rally, Sieyuan is now trading at a 28.4x 2027e PE multiple, above its historical 25x average PE multiple since 2010. At this valuation, we still see upside but not so much on the above-mentioned catalysts, which we think have been reflected in the share price rally. Rather, we like Sieyuan for its sustainable product portfolio expansion and market share gain potential on top of the sector’s prospects. Cycles, such as a grid demand spike driven by US AIDC investment, can go up and down, but the capability to sustain growth through cycles justify a higher valuation. This was our major investment thesis when we initiated coverage in December 2022.
Siyuan’s HK IPO application document, published on the stock exchange’s website on 11 February 2026, reinforces our thesis.
We see a few bright spots: 1) Static var generator (SVG) and Static synchronous compensator (SSC) product sales have been increasing fast in 9M25; 2) secondary equipment has performed well since 2024 in the off-grid market; and 3) we see significant gross margin upside for Sieyuan’s energy storage systems and components business, where the gross margin was only 12.1% in 9M25. These factors further convince us of Sieyuan’s potential for product portfolio expansion, and we continue to believe Sieyuan can achieve RMB100bn in revenue by 2032e.
Maintain Buy; raise our 2025-27e estimates and our target price to RMB246.80: We raise our 2025-27e net profit estimates by 9.5%, 8.9% and 12.5%, respectively, reflecting better-than-expected results in the 2025 pre-announcement and better growth for a few segments disclosed in the latest HK listing documents. We raise our target price to RMB246.80 (from RMB176.80) as we change our earnings estimates and DCF assumptions (we extend our forecasting period from 2034e to 2038e). Our target price implies 15.1% upside, and we maintain our Buy rating, given its long-term growth prospects. See key downside risks on page 11.
"""
file-type：研究报告
file-id：421451154275438592
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